Aw Crud & You Decide # 25
Thursday, January 05, 2006
I played in three tourneys last night: a freeroll from OnlinePokerTour.com, an 18-person Omaha h/l SNG, and an 9-person NLHE SNG. I lost them all.
And it leaves a bad taste in my mouth. But that's poker. The freeroll was actually moving along well. It seemed like whenever I decided to raise with marginal hands, I'd pick up the blinds. Continuation bets were also working like a charm. The only problem was that there were 1000+ people and the prize for the top 25 players was a freeroll into a $10 tourney. I know! Chump change. But I figured its free and when I started doing well, it became hard to just all-in myself to death or victory.
At the same time, I played an 18-person PLO h/l game. I played okay overall, until I made a silly donkey move. I thought I had the nut low with A2 in my hand and 23346 board. DUH!!! I lost to players with A5 and stuff. I mean, that is really stupid of me. After that, I couldn't get anything going. I finally lost when I had the nut straight draw on the flop and a wrap to cover any potentially higher straights. There were a lot of players in the hand pre-flop, and one player raised the pot. I came over the top, hoping to avoid the flush draw out there. All of the other players folded except for the raiser, who called with 6s7s8x9x, hitting his low spade flush on the river. I still think it was a decent play on my part. He was less than a coin toss to win the hand, and I got odds.
Immediately after, I realized that the Freeroll was annoying, so I played a lot looser...until I busted.
I waited a while and then sat down for the single table NLHE SNG. I was moving along, playing tightly, when this hand occurred. It is todays, "You Decide."
You Decide #25
I am in the SB with Qd5d. A player in EP minimum raises, but 4 players call. This table wasn't particularly loose, but what the hell. At this point, pot odds dictated I call. The BB called too. There was 7 or so in the pot.
The flop was AdJd9c. I had the second nut flush draw. I check, hoping to call a small or moderate raise. Someone in MP bets the pot. I believe blinds were 25/50, so the pot was about 350. The player after him raises all-in. Now, if I call, I may as well push all-in. I would have only a few hundred left over. I also assume that the original better is going to call because he is shortstacked with only 700 or so in front of him after his raise. I decide to fold.
The better calls and is all-in. They both have Ace blank. The river is the 9d. I would've won the hand.
So, was the fold here advisable or was it time to gamble.
In the end, I lost the tourney on a poor timed steal. But I don't want to dwell on that. Tomorrow, er, today, is a new day. At least with these SNGs, after losing all night, I'm only down $10. That's something to be proud of.
You complete me.
posted by Jordan @ 9:08 AM,
- At 9:41 AM, said...
You're gambling on creating a situation. If you force the other guy out with your all-in reraise, the third guy probably doesn't call. You're getting horrible odds to create a marginal situation where you are a double stack. If you KNOW that the third guy would call, then maybe it is worth it, even if it ends up being slightly -chip EV, because with, basically, a triple stack you can coast into the money and be selective (or you can be an all-in slut... but you don't see a lot of SNGs won by hyperactive players).
All things considered, I think you made the right decision.
- At 9:48 AM, said...
Wow, my first comment doesn't make much sense (horrible example of english language), feel free to delete it. Let me rephrase. You will probably force the third guy out if you reraise all in, so you are getting horrible odds to create what, in the end, will be a marginally good situation. If you KNOW the other guy will call your all in, then maybe it is worth the -chip EV to basically triple up. This situation will let you be more flexible in how you play. But, there is probably too much uncertainty in the third guy's action to take that gamble.
You made the right decision and you were probably pretty certain of it when you did it. Don't sweat the final outcome.
- At 10:05 AM, kaellinn18 said...
I agree with David; I think you had to fold to the all-in reraise there.
- At 10:05 AM, joaquin ochoa said...
I feel that when you called the raise and you committed yourself to a tough decision. Reason being you know the pot is going to be huge after the flop and it's going to be hard to get away if you have a draw or get a piece of it...say 9 high flop. Then you push and someone has a pair of 10's. It's a tricky pot but I would have folded...wait for a better spot...no need to chase so early.
- At 11:18 AM, PokerSweetHome said...
Ditto for me. A text book fold. You are probably going to face two opponents for all of your chips as a one-in-three underdog. Sucks to see that diamond after your fold, but that's poker.
- At 11:38 AM, Jordan from HighOnPoker said...
Yeah, well, um, devil's advocate here. I think I messed up. Maybe someone else can do the math because, I just tried and I don't think my math was right. The chance of the flush card coming on the turn is about 18:36, or 1:2. I did think that the first better was going to call. So the pot would have been about 1:2, or maybe more. My real fear was going up against KdXd, in which case I was screwed. Even so, I still feel like I made an error in judgment. I guess, typing this out has taught me one thing. It was a even money decision, so I went with the cautious move, which is right in an SNG. I should be looking for spots where I am secure. That said, FUCK!!! I really wanted to win. For some reason, yesterday's losses really bothered me. I guess it is good that I am sticking with SNGs. At least it prevents me from running amuk with my bankroll when I'm tilting.
- At 12:31 PM, GaryC said...
I fold there, but, as you already know, I probably don't call the raise to begin with. I think your odds of hitting the flush are somewhere around 1:4 twice after the flop, but still, so early in a SNG, I'm not banking my entire stack on a draw when I think I can outplay most of the donkeys later in the tourney. JMO.
No blogging for me today. I'm at home and a little under the weather, so I'm sleeping in and playing a little poker.
Might be on-line tonight.
- At 12:40 PM, said...
I missed this:
"I also assume that the original better is going to call because he is shortstacked with only 700 or so in front of him after his raise."
If you really put someone on Kdxd, then you are drawing to 7 diamonds instead of 9, as well as drawing dead to them. That takes you down to 2.2:1. Even if he is drawing to something like KdJx, you're still -chip EV.
If you call at (no better than) even money but as a big odds dog, and finish the hand with 300 in chips, you've basically gone bust. Then you start thinking, "Crap, I'm such a donkey, I always draw. What the hell was I doing in the hand with Q5 anyways?"
We hear the gospel of being risk neutral, bet, raise, and call when the odds merit it and fold when they don't, and that is fine in the infinitely long horizon, infinitely b'rolled cash game of poker, but in a SNG, it's probably better to be a little more risk averse, and save yourself for when you think you are ahead.
Did you really want to win? Or did you really want to play?
- At 12:42 PM, said...
As an aside, I am not trying to bust your balls. I pretty much suck at NLHE, so my questions are so I can understand how you think about the game.
- At 1:11 PM, Jordan from HighOnPoker said...
Here at High On Poker we value Ball Busters like David. That's the point of the You Decide posts. I'm no pro, although I play one on the Internet. So, I'm willing to hear other viewpoints. That's the whole point.
Plus, I have a particular style of poker that a lot of people don't agree with. Well SCREW THEM! Um, well actually, don't screw them. That's what I love about poker. It's a thousand different games to a thousand different people. I made that quote up all by myself, I think.
- At 2:01 PM, willwonka said...
Ok.. coming in late here... but in my humble opinion, you have to fold... Decisions not results...
- At 2:08 PM, kipper said...
You should have stuck to the freeroll!! Not much to gamble with there!
- At 2:30 PM, drizztdj said...
Non-nut flush draw? Not even close to being worth it w/o any other viable outs since you're probably up against at least a big ace.
- At 5:27 PM, Heafy said...
If the third diamond didn't come, would you still be thinking about this hand?
- At 10:58 PM, kaellinn18 said...
Jordan, your math is a little off. You're actually about 36% to hit the flush after the flop there, not 50%. Just remember the rule of four and two!
- At 11:33 PM, Jordan from HighOnPoker said...
Yeah, um, I dunno about that rule of 3. I mean, math and logic would have it that there are 9 more flush cards and 47 unknown cards. 52 - 2 hole cards - 3 flop. So, for the turn, it's a 9/47. And, if you miss, then on the river its 9/46. And that is where my brain starts to hurt. So let's change them both to 9/46, add them to 18/46, and then do the precentage: 39.1%. Closer to yours than mine. I dunno. Now I gotta do the pot odds, assuming they were both calling. Ah, fuck it. The point is, with all of this dissent, I really need to reconsider my original opinion.
- At 9:03 PM, said...
Im my humble opinion, your only mistake in the hand was calling the preflop raise. Q5 suited is a hand that should never be played after a preflop raise at a full table. The only flop that would make me feel safe would be QQQ or 555, anything else and you are not in a position of power. Let's say that the flop was 3-5-7 of diams, you have flopped your flush. SO WHAT, you still have to be concerned with the posibility that your flush is third best (not to mention the straight flush possibility). I know the tendency when you in the big blind is that you already have money in the pot so you feel some what obgligated to call. Forget about it, that big blind is not yours anymore, cut your losses and fold Q5 suited before you get your heart ripped out.