High on Poker

You Decide #31
Tuesday, April 04, 2006

This You Decide guest stars TripJax and GCox!

Here's the setup. You are playing in a Satellite to the WSOP with a group of strong players. You have 11,000 in chips, and are the second or third shortstack at the table. Blinds are 100/200 with a 25 ante (or maybe 50). Only two players will win seats to the WSOP in this 93 person tournament, and there are currently about 25 players left. The table is tight.

You are in early position (UTG+1) and decide to limp with Kd5d. This, in and of itself, might be an error, and that is the first question. However, this, to me, isn't the crucial question, because I'm assuming 9 times out of 10, you are going to fold here.

Everyone folds to the small blind, GCox, who has about 16,000. He raises from 200 to 600. TripJax, in the big blind, has 25,000, and calls. I decide to call, reasoning that there was a decent amount of money in the pot and I was in position.

The flop is A 2 3 with two diamonds. I have a flush draw and an inside straight draw (if a 4 comes). GCox is first to act, and bets 600-1000. Trip decides to re-raise to somewhere between 3000 and 5000. I have a decision to make. I push all in. GCox folds begrudgingly, and Trip calls with AJ.

I fail to hit anything on the turn and river and IGHN. GCox had AK, and consequently would have won, but he feared the two re-raises (rightly, I would suggest).

So, what do you all think. I want you to keep in mind a few things. (a) I thought GCox AND Trip were going to call me. (b) Only the top 2 spots paid out of the entire tournament.

Personally, I liked the play, and I think I would do it again, but I want to know what you think, because its definitely one of those suspect plays.

Enjoy!

Addendum: Please review the following diagram for some additional insight into the hand.

posted by Jordan @ 1:04 PM,

50 Comments:

At 1:22 PM, Anonymous said...: I personally wouldn't of been in the hand in the first place but with that being said...

I dont like putting my tournament life on the line with a draw. You said you knew that they would call so you also knew that you were behind. Why risk going out when the next hand could be your chance to triple up when you are a 60% favourite, unlike having only a 46% to win now.

I fold to Trip's reraise knowing i'm behind and hope to find a better chance to fight again.
At 1:57 PM, Anonymous said...: Hey Jordan,

Do you want to play at The TowneHouse on Friday? 4-8 limit hold'em with a 6-12 kill from 8:30 to 11. No limit from 11 to 2.

Let me know,

LF
At 2:01 PM, Anonymous said...: I first do not think it was a bad play. HOWEVER, for me, I am not sure I would do it. The thing I dont like pre-flop is calling the raise. How often do you flop a flush/flush draw? Its a decent raise to be calling for the odds on the flush draw. Obviously you have a ton of outs on the flop, but you also have a decent stack compared to the blinds and can wait. Which is the only reason to fold. I think you fold to Coxy's raise though.
At 2:51 PM, Anonymous said...: Limping from a early position in a NLHE tournament is a terrible play unless you’re slowplaying Aces or Kings. It’s even worst when you hold a borderline trash hand like K5s. You will flop a flush only 6% of the time and in this case, you’re not even drawing to the nut flush. So being involved in that pot is just a terrible mistake to begin with.

Your push is also a mistake. With a M of 20 why are you putting your tournament life at risk on a bunch of draws? You have at the very least 20 FULL orbits of Poker to be played, so why the big rush to double on a few draws?
At 2:56 PM, Anonymous said...: I agree with Riverrun in that I wouldn't be in the hand in the first place.

However, if I had made it to the flop, I don't think I would have pushed on that hand knowing I was behind. Also, you don't mention if you have the nut flush draw. Is the A a diamond, or is it the two and three? If the A is not a diamond, you risk being outdrawn to a higher flush as well.

I definitely fold here.
At 3:33 PM, Anonymous said...: I think everyone is missing an extremely important point here...Jordan is one of the co-creators for the DADI events, in this case he should ALWAYS push/call here...cause Donkeys Always Draw :)
At 3:45 PM, Anonymous said...: Ok, so the play was suspect at best. I do believe I had the nut flush draw. The thing is, if you ignore the preflop play, the postflop math may make this a +EV play. Let's do it, shall we.

Chance of hitting a flush or straight by the river: 48.17% (12/47 + 12/46)

Expected amount of money if I win with two callers: $33,500 approx.

Expected amount of money if GCox folds: $24,000 approx.

Amount that I had to put in to push: $10,000, approximately

So, I had to bet all-in with 10k, to win at least 24k and possibly 33k, and my odds to hit my outs were slightly under 50%!

That's a +EV play, if ever I saw one. Now, here is the point of contention. Is it worth it to put your entire tournament on the line? I still say YES, because its essentially a winner takes all tournament, and I needed chips to be able to get to a dominant position. I still like the play, somewhat, but I know it is flawed. Just thought some discussion could be enlightening.

PS- as for the preflop play, it is clearly loose, but the table was tight and I could afford to fold if I was re-raiase out of position or by someone I feared. You hear that G, I got no fear of you!

PPS- I don't mean any of this as justification for the suspect play, but rather as insight into how and why I played it.
At 3:50 PM, Anonymous said...: I don't know if I push, but I don't think that it is entirely unreasonable to be in this situation. I would probably call and draw, and let one of the A's pay me off if I hit. That being said, you are going to get it all in, anyways, because calling basically commits you to the pot. So, no shame in that game either.

Run the hands through pokerstove and see where the equity lies. K5s is a dog, for sure, but it's not in THAT bad of shape (I think, I can't check it here at work). I think that you have to be willing to gamble a little preflop, and while this isn't a great hand to gamble with, I'd rather gamble with K5s than 75s.
At 4:10 PM, Anonymous said...: This is one of those tournament situations where David Sklanksy advocates giving up on a slightly +EV in the hopes of gaining a bigger edge later down the road.

The key word here is Tournament. In a cash, where you can always stick your hand in your pocket to get more money, you can’t let these edges go, that’s where your profit is gonna come from. But in a tournament, where being broke pretty much sends you home, you have to let these things go.

If you were a complete donkey that is pretty much outclassed from the get-go, than yes, push all these tiny edges to the max and hope for the best. But you’re a good enough player to find better spots to stick all your money in.
At 4:45 PM, Anonymous said...: First off, I know that you aren't too concerned with the preflop commentary, but I'd like to offer a thought: What if you raised preflop? If you're willing to call a raise, you might as well raise it - this way, when, in this situation, AK or AJ reraises you, you can fold and move on to the next hand.

As for the postflop play - while I agree with the EV calculation, I also think that with 10000 remaining chips and only 100/200 blinds, you can find a better spot than this. Even though it is a winner take all event, unless you get cold-decked the rest of the way (which is possible), you can win some big pots down the road without having to catch a card.

My two cents - good luck at the tables J.

-Joe
At 6:19 PM, Anonymous said...: First, as you already know, I am not in the hand to begin with holding K-5 to a raise. That being said, I don't hate your play post flop at all, in fact, you accmplished part of your goal, you got me to lay down the best hand, you just failed to make your hand. With an M of 20, I might call and see the turn, but there is no way all my chips are in the middle there.

By the way, you played very well last night, regardless of how that hand turned out.

G
At 6:22 PM, Anonymous said...: I agree with Gary, you played well last night...rebounding from a couple tough beats and down to the felt then made a nice comeback.
At 6:23 PM, Anonymous said...: You pushed with the hand that, of the 3, was statisticaly the favorite. I have no problem with shoving at that point.
At 6:37 PM, Anonymous said...: Thank you all. Mow, I'm glad you realized the obvious point, that I was the favorite. I had to post the odds to show most people, because in this situation, it is counter-intuitive. I did play very well last night, but mostly by mixing it up with players, as opposed to the rest of the players who were very tight.

I have a confession to make. I was tired and it was 1 am and I was willing to lose on this hand. In another situation, I would probably fold, but I knew the chances of winning the whole sheband were slim unless I won a huge hand like this, and I factored that into my decision making. Also, I know Trip and G very well, and I knew 100% that I was behind. I could guarantee that they had Aces, and figured one of them for AK and the other for AQ.

As far as style of play, I might post about this later, because I have changed it up again, reverting to my older, looser self, and so far, it hasn't been too bad.
At 6:40 PM, Anonymous said...: L'artiste: "and in this case, you’re not even drawing to the nut flush."

Yes, he was drawing to the nut flush.

I really think you can wait for a better spot to go all in. Since only the top two qualify in this satellite, I don't think your play is bad, but it's not good as you played it. It's marginal.

I would be inclined to say I like your all in better than TripJax's call, but it was so little for TripJax to call that there's no way he could have folded there.

If you thought that both Gcox and TripJax were going to call, then I really like your play, and it's no longer marginal given the payout structure in this tournament.

The only problem is, you played it incorrectly by not giving yourself the best chance for them both to call!

To keep them both in the hand (and give yourself correct odds which compensate for the major drawbacks of getting broke) was to just CALL TripJax's raise on the flop, with the intention of going all in no matter what on the turn. If you played the hand that way, and didn't push Gcox out of the hand, I would say you engaged in a smart gamble considering the payout structure in this tournament.

I believe your logic was sound, but the execution was flawed.
At 6:58 PM, Anonymous said...: Clap clap clap. DP's got it. That was the error. If I wanted both to call, I should've checked. That also would've given me an opprotuntiy to get away from the hand. Thanks DP.
At 7:05 PM, Anonymous said...: My two cents:

I agree very much with DP that this is a great place to get your chips in, particularly given the structure of the tournament. You have 12 clean outs to the nuts or almost certainly nuts and have pot odds against any two hands that are likely to be against you (maybe not a set which enjoys 10 redraws against all your hands), but not so far off.

Not sure if I agree however with DP that you need or want them both to call if doing that meant doing less than going all in yourself.

First of all, two folds is the highest EV and arguably is what should have happened, but even against 1 caller you have odds. You also have fold equity here if either suspects you have the set (which GCox clearly did). Plus they are both tight players with enough chips to be able to afford to fold. Two folds isn't going to happen with a call.

Also, if you simply call to induce the over call, you might not get it anyway (very suspicious under the circumstances) and even if you do you are very unlikely to get action if you flush on the turn (straight is a different story, but only 3 outs to that). I suppose your calling might induce TJ to raise, but I'm guessing GCox is gone in that case too.

Conversely, if you had called and TJ folded, leaving you heads up with GCox and a blank hit, you're pot committed anyway with half your chips in the pot if he pushes the turn as he should.

I think you played it perfectly (given the flop, preflop another story, hate calling with the king there, much prefer low suited connectors in that spot).
At 7:32 PM, Anonymous said...: You're confusing me in your reply, so I cannot accept your appreciation for my post, just yet. =)
At 7:39 PM, Anonymous said...: Sox, I think you fail to take into account that if Jordan called TripJax's raise, Gcox would only have to call $4k and all three would be seeing the turn card (which Jordan would automatically go all in on) and everyone would be committed, giving Jordan excellent odds especially given the very limited payout structure. Jordan would be getting 3-1 on a coinflip.

Just because the money doesn't technically go all in on the flop, doesn't mean it's bad if all the money goes all in on the turn, if it's known that by calling on the flop all three players money will be committed on the turn.

I'm sure the sentence structure and grammar of this post is horrible.
At 11:06 PM, Anonymous said...: I stand by my comment. First, the fold equity point is still there--AJ probably should not have called, particularly with GCox behind (though perhaps if he fold, GCox calls but I doubt it).

Second, I disagree that it's the same on the turn. Again, if a flush hits there, Jordan stands to win less rather than more money. Consider that if he does only call the likely result is one of the folllowing:

1. TJ raises all in--he has to if he thinks his ace might be good as he clearly did. (A) GCox probably folds and we get exactly the same result. (B) If GCox calls, Jordan is better off but this is inconsistent with his actual fold so I don't see this.

2. TJ simply calls--I just don't see this play which would be a serious mistake for TJ. If it did happen, GCox either (A) calls (which would be better for Jordan only if the diamonds hits on the river but not the turn, since he won't get paid off), or (B) reraises all in (which would be better in all cases).

3. TJ folds and GCox calls. Worse result for Jordan than the all-in bet, as in theory GCox can will get away if diamond hits on turn and Jordan is still pot committed if the turn misses.

4. TJ folds and GCox raises all in--same result as base case--though it seems inconsistent with what happened.

Only in cases 1(B) and 2(B) is the result better than what Jordan did, and again I don't see either of those scenarios as realistic. When you balance that against the fold equity which has to have some value here and the cost of getting just a call followed by a diamond on the turn with no more money, I again endorse Jordan's move.
At 2:00 AM, Anonymous said...: Sox, TripJax bet T5k and it was only T~5.4k more for him to call Jordan's all in. If you take into account the amount of money in the pot and TripJax's stack size, he was pot committed.
At 8:38 PM, Anonymous said...: AND Trip had a significant stack vs. G and me. I agree w/ DP, he is pot committed.
At 1:08 PM, Anonymous said...: Great website! Bookmarked! I am impressed at your work!
At 2:32 PM, Anonymous said...: I can't be bothered with anything these days, but such is life. I don't care. So it goes. More or less nothing seems worth thinking about. I've just been hanging out waiting for something to happen, but that's how it is.
At 8:53 PM, Anonymous said...: Great website! Bookmarked! I am impressed at your work!
clomid | valium diazepam | ionamin | fioricet | fioricet | hydrocodone | ephedrine | ephedrine | clomid | cialis | prilosec | propecia | buy diazepam | estradiol | ritalin | medication | viagra | diazepam | vicodin | diazepam online |
At 8:56 PM, Anonymous said...: Very good site. Thanks for author!
buy diazepam | ephedrine | diazepam | hydrocodone | fioricet | ephedrine | propecia | estradiol | fioricet | cialis | diazepam online | vicodin | estradiol | prilosec | ritalin | diazepam | diet pills | viagra | medication | clomid |
At 11:25 PM, Anonymous said...: Great website! Bookmarked! I am impressed at your work!
ambien manufacturer | soma | ambien | ephedrine | ambien suicide | diazepam | cialis | hydrocodone | ambien without a prescription | viagra | didrex | ambien | diet loss phentermine pill weight | cheapest didrex online | valium | phentermine side effects | snorting hydrocodone w/apap | hydrocodone | ambien side effects | hydrocodone overdose |
At 4:34 PM, Anonymous said...: I'm really impressed!
ambien overnight | generic ambien | no prescription tramadol | ambien abuse | compounded hydrocodone | valium diazepam | online pharmacy hydrocodone | Buy Phentermine COD | lortab | adipex p | extra cheap phentermine | tramadol | diazepam buy | opisali?my | didrex drug | Tramadol Hydrochloride | opisali?my | opisali?my | hydrocodone addiction | opisali?my |
At 4:35 PM, Anonymous said...: Very good site. Thanks for author!
more details | more details | buy tamiflu online | more details | Clonazepam indications | diazepam buy | more details | more details | clonazepam | more details | "valium cheap" | How Does Phentermine Work | more details | clonazepam AND withdrawl | more details | "buy tramadol online" | tramadol without a prescription | lipitor | diazepam and valerina | more details |
At 4:40 PM, Anonymous said...: Your home page its great
How Does Phentermine Work | Polsk? o planach | cialis | Polsk? o planach | cheap viagra | cheap cialis | diet loss phentermine pill weight | phentermine vs adipex p | side effects of tramadol | phentermine | Polsk? o planach | Polsk? o planach | fioricet | order viagra online | hydrocodone syrup | Polsk? o planach | Polsk? o planach | Polsk? o planach | Polsk? o planach | Polsk? o planach |
At 4:43 PM, Anonymous said...: I'm really impressed!
wirus?wInformacje | ambien cr dosage | lunesta vs ambien | soma | buy viagra online | ambien cr samples | wirus?wInformacje | phentermine | buy generic viagra | wirus?wInformacje | "order valium" | phentermine | ambien memory loss | ambien cost at walmart | wirus?wInformacje | buy hydrocodone no prescription | wirus?wInformacje | wirus?wInformacje | Tamiflu Purchase | cheap cialis tablets |
At 4:45 PM, Anonymous said...: I like your site
what is phentermine | tramadol 50 mg | cialis coupon | hydrocodone bitartrate | compound pharmacy hydrocodone bitrate | buy hydrocodone online no prior rx needed | hydrocodone dosage | herbal phentermine | inoffiziellen | inoffiziellen | inoffiziellen | inoffiziellen | inoffiziellen | viagra | inoffiziellen | inoffiziellen | phentermine vs adipex p | order phentermine | phentermine 37.5 mg | inoffiziellen |
At 1:45 PM, Anonymous said...: Your site is very cognitive. I think you will have good future.:)
phentermine xenical diet pill | viagra dosage | italy | italy | italy | ambien | italy | cialis viagra | diazepam and vicodin interactions | italy | cialis prescription | didrex weight loss | italy | hydrocodone without prescription | cialis sale | best price cialis | italy | weight loss with xenical | xenical no prescription | italy |
At 10:54 PM, Anonymous said...: I'm really impressed!
forum | diazepam | forum | hydrocodone | tramadol | phentermine | didrex | xanax | tamiflu | forum | didrex | forum | vicodin | hydrocodone polistirex | ambien | forum | forum | diazepam | ambien | betting |
At 9:29 AM, Anonymous said...: So interesting site, thanks!
vicodin | Home Page | didrex | tramadol medicine | Home Page | Home Page | Home Page | xanax | Home Page | Home Page | phentermine | tramadol | Home Page | valium | cialis | ambien | vicodin | cialis | Home Page | Home Page |
At 9:29 AM, Anonymous said...: HI! I love this place!
vicodin | tamiflu | didrex | �� | �� | hydrocodone | valium | xanax | �� | �� | phentermine | tramadol | cialis | valium | �� | ambien | �� | cialis | diazepam | �� |
At 9:29 AM, Anonymous said...: May we exchange links with your site?
vicodin http://kerdblk.m6blog.m6.fr/ tamiflu http://topovbli-dor.ddo.jp/tamiflu.html didrex http://asspida.nix.pl tramadol medicine http://grabkra.asp2.cz/tramadol-medicine80.html xanax http://cryptogrof.nix.pl hydrocodone http://asmel.alkablog.com/hydrocodone_b41613.html valium http://lartakap.asp2.cz/valium60.html xanax http://blog.lide.cz/ggerbl4/ tamiflu http://pirozok.to.pl/ xanax http://topovbli-dor.ddo.jp/xanax.html phentermine http://topovbli-dor.ddo.jp/phentermine.html tramadol http://pr9nik.alkablog.com/tramadol_b41615.html cialis http://serzants.nix.pl valium http://topovbli-dor.ddo.jp/valium.html cialis http://wwizardd.m6blog.m6.fr/ ambien http://topovbli-dor.ddo.jp/ambien.html vicodin http://kkarsha.web.fc2.com/i/vicodin.html cialis http://kkarsha.web.fc2.com/i/cialis.html diazepam http://topovbli-dor.ddo.jp/diazepam.html Tamiflu http://vkserv.m6blog.m6.fr/
At 9:29 AM, Anonymous said...: I like your site
At 1:01 PM, Anonymous said...: I like your site
viagra | Zeitgenosse | tramadol | Zeitgenosse | Zeitgenosse | ambien | tramadol | hydrocodone | valium cod | viagra | Zeitgenosse | hydrocodone | Zeitgenosse | Zeitgenosse | phentermine caps | Zeitgenosse | Zeitgenosse | hydrocodone | Zeitgenosse | hydrocodone polistirex |
At 9:00 PM, Anonymous said...: May we exchange links with your site?
ambien | ambien | hydrocodone | phentermine | cialis | didrex | cialis | viagra | hydrocodone polistirex | valium | tamiflu | clonazepam | phentermine | diazepam | tramadol medicine | valium cod | tramadol | phentermine | phentermine | valium |
At 1:55 AM, Anonymous said...: Great website! Bookmarked! I am impressed at your work!
phentermine | hydrocodone | diazepam | hydrocodone | didrex | ambien |
At 6:14 AM, Anonymous said...: Best site I see. Thanks.
ambien | diazepam | phentermine | hydrocodone polistirex | hydrocodone | betting | diazepam | xanax | tramadol | betting | tramadol | valium | ambien | cialis | didrex | tramadol | diazepam | cialis | tramadol | phentermine |
At 11:42 AM, Anonymous said...: Great website! Bookmarked! I am impressed at your work!
phentermine | didrex | ambien | phentermine pills | Tamiflu | valium | didrex | betting | viagra | ambien | diazepam | phentermine caps | tramadol medicine | clonazepam | tramadol | hydrocodone | ambien | cialis | hydrocodone | betting |
At 6:00 PM, Anonymous said...: I'm really impressed!
online viagra | online ambien | hydrocodone | vicodin | clonazepam | tamiflu | tramadol | valium cod | vicodin | xanax | phentermine | hydrocodone | xanax | valium | hydrocodone polistirex | valium | ambien | xanax | tramadol | didrex |
At 9:28 PM, Anonymous said...: Great website! Bookmarked! I am impressed at your work!
hydrocodone | online phentermine | diazepam | hydrocodone | ambien | Tamiflu | vicodin | diazepam | cialis | valium | clonazepam |
At 3:03 AM, Anonymous said...: Best site I see. Thanks.
diazepam | betting | xanax | tamiflu | phentermine | didrex | vicodin | betting | ambien | phentermine caps | diazepam | clonazepam | online valium | online cialis | ambien | ambien | hydrocodone | ambien | online diazepam | online tamiflu |
At 5:55 AM, Anonymous said...: So interesting site, thanks!
ambien | online viagra | cialis | online hydrocodone | diazepam | betting | vicodin | xanax | clonazepam | vicodin | hydrocodone | xanax | hydrocodone | online clonazepam | cialis | online xanax | clonazepam | online carisoprodol | vicodin | hydrocodone |
At 11:18 AM, Anonymous said...: Best site I see. Thanks.
picture of Ambien CR | hydrocodone for sale | ambien long term use | cheap tramadol | didrex 50mg tablet | clonazepam drug | cheap valium | uses of diazepam | Hydrocodone And M361 | hydrocodone online questionnaire | diazepam cheap | generic phentermine | ambien overnight | hydrocodone cod no prescription | clonazepam without a prescription at cost | ambien truth serum | online clonazepam | buy valium | cheap hydrocodone | online diazepam |
At 8:16 PM, Anonymous said...: Very good site. Thanks for author!
cheap hydrocodone | cheap adipex | buy hydrocodone | cheap viagra | buy phentermine | buy valium | online didrex | phentermine | cheap tramadol | online betting | online xanax | carisoprodol | buy didrex | online vicodin | buy tamiflu | cheap clonazepam | cheap didrex | online tramadol | tramadol | online phentermine |
At 11:59 AM, Anonymous said...: Your home page its great
cheap adipex | vicodin | online hydrocodone | buy clonazepam | online tramadol | cheap xanax | xanax | buy phentermine | buy vicodin | buy tramadol | tramadol depression | buy valium | cheap valium | online didrex | pictures of generic valium | betting | online diazepam | buy didrex | online valium | cheap phentermine |

Site menu:

You Decide #31
Tuesday, April 04, 2006

50 Comments:

Notable Posts

Previous Posts

Links

Site menu:

You Decide #31 Tuesday, April 04, 2006

50 Comments:

Notable Posts

Previous Posts

Links

You Decide #31
Tuesday, April 04, 2006