You Decide #56
Tuesday, November 06, 2007
Before my horrid bad luck swing, I copied a series of hands where I made, what I considered, correct plays. I would like some of your input. The key to these hands in particular is whether or not I should fold. I won't tell you the results until tomorrow, so take a stab at whether you would've folded or called/raised in these situations and bask at your intelligence tomorrow! Or, find out that you were stupid. It's up to you!
Just for the hell of it, we'll consider this one a You Decide post. So, without further adieu:
You Decide #56 - in four parts
We are in a $69+6 $7000 guaranteed tournament on Full Tilt, at the 15/30 level. We've been playing tight and have near our starting stack of 3000, when we are dealt AA on the button. A player in EP limps for 30, the CO limps for 30, and we raise it to 165. The BB calls, and everyone else folds. We don't have any reads on the BB.
The flop is KJ2, rainbow. The BB bets 200 into the 405 pot. I raise to 1005. The BB pushes all-in to 2835. What do you do?
We are in a PLO H/L double stack tournament on Full Tilt. We have 4060 and the blinds are 25/50. We are dealt Js Qd Ts 8c, UTG and limp. For the purpose of today's discussion, let's ignore the limp with those cards and any other decisions made until the last decision. I want to focus on what to do in these marginal situations, so how I get there is merely presented for background.
Sonny, the UTG+1 with 2183, raises to 225. Papa with 4600 in MP, calls. I call as well. Once again, we have no reads on individual players.
The flop is A26, all spades. I have a Jack-high flush. I check, intending to check-raise. Sonny bets 750 into the 750 pot. Papa raises to 3,000. At this point, what do we do?
We are still in the PLO H/L tournament, with 5768. It has become apparent that the game is fairly loose. The blinds are 50/100. With Jh 3h 6d 4d, we call, UTG. Grinch, with over 15,000, calls in UTG+2. Homey, with 6k, calls from the button. The SB folds, and the BB, Talen with 6,733, calls.
The flop is 2h 9h Ks. We have a Jack-high flush draw. Talen in the BB bets 100. We call. Grinch folds. Homey on the button calls.
The turn is Th. There is no low possible and we hit our Jack-high flush draw. Talen bets 2250. What should we do?
We are now playing at Poker.com in a $25 buy-in tournament with some guarantee. Blinds are 25/50, and we have around 2600. We are in the BB and are dealt 93o. Preflop, Nord raises to 100 from UTG. The button, Moose, calls. Both Nord and Moose have us outchipped. The SB folds and I call the 50.
The flop is 973 rainbow. I check, expecting to check-raise. Nord bets 900 into the 325 pot. Moose raises all-in for 2655. What should we do?
That's it for now. Please share your thoughts. The results should be very interesting. In fact, I'll offer up $11 via Stars transfer for one commentor whoever makes the correct play in each instance. I'll take all correct answers submitted by tomorrow morning, and pick one out of a hat. I'll only accept the first submission, if you guess more than once.
Until next time, make mine poker!
posted by Jordan @ 6:30 AM,
- At 4:06 PM, Instant Tragedy: Just Add Water said...
Now correct play according to you or correct as in what would be correct in the situation?
Hand #1. Fold to flopped middle or lower set?
Hand #2. You don't have a low draw so why continue to play when you don't have a way of at least winning half the pot, cause 1/2 is gone to the guy holding 3 4. You're dead to a Q Crap or King Crap Flush also. Go Away.
Hand #3 Here I like the call because there is no low. Not splitting a pot. I like a call here.
Nord has A9 and is testing to see if his TPTK is good, Moose has overpair.
But what do I know...
:-) Instant Tragedy
- At 4:15 PM, Fuel55 said...
Hand 1 - call and stack off. His range is JJ,22,KJs,QTs,KJo,QTo (I exclude KK since he'd reraise preflop with 2 limpers left to act). You are a 52:48 dog against this range and the is offering you just over 2:1.
Hand 2 - hate the UTG limp with no low potential. Hate the raise call OP too. You are probably ahead on the flop but there is a reasonable chance it wont hold up and if you are not ahead YOU CANT CATCH UP. Fold. Completely avoidable problem if you had avoided the situation all together.
Hand 3 - another horrible situation that was completely avoidable by folding PF. I hate every street - call and stack off, I guess.
Hand 4 - fold
- At 4:28 PM, bayne_s said...
Hand 1) someone has played the donkey or SUper DOnkey against you but I call.
2) fold best case you are against a set and low, worst case you are drawing dead.
4) If you are going to be enough of a donkey to call with 93o then you cannot fold when you flop top and bottom pair. Best case is both have JJ.
- At 4:52 PM, Lewis Cash said...
Hand one: Call and pray the donk has A-K. Going broke here sucks, but what can you do?
Hand Two: You asked me not to comment on the pre-flop play, but...
Anyways, I fold, hands down.
Hand three: fold.
Hand four: fold and let those guys get it in with top two and a set.
- At 5:11 PM, DOMIT said...
OK, w/out reading the other comments.. I'll take a stab at this.
I don't know what your level is, so in a little of a "it depends", I might end up saying to call if these are buy-ins that you play a lot and don't mind toooo much if you're bumped out. Since you were on the button, it's possible that the BB called with AK, maybe KQs or QTs and is hoping that you were stealing and he's trying to take it on the flop.
However, if the BB is aware at all, he should know that 1) you've been playing tight, 2) put in a serious raise on the flop. For him to go AI most likely means to me a set, JJ or 22. (I wonder about not reraising pre w/ JJ, and especially KK, but he is OOP and he might actually have noticed ur playing tight, so JJ is still a possibility.) For these considerations, I'd most likely say fold.. you'll still have around 2k left (since you stated that you still have close to your original 3k and the limits are only 15/30.. fold and live to fight again.
Once again, without reads, I'd say fold. You have nothing invested on the flop and Papa has you covered. You have no idea if he's being aggro with a flush or just has a set of A's. Sonny bet as well, and either could have come in with double suited kings and flopped the nuts. Even if your just up against a set, the set has the redraw and even if you're winning now, it's possible to be outdrawn by the river. Personally, I'd fold this one.
OK, now I just saw that you stated "H/L".. boy, good thing you said to ignore playing the cards you're playing, -grin-, but I do play rather tight in PLO8. I'd still fold though, since with no reads, KKds is still possible.
Jh 3h 6d 4d, we call, UTG... ~x(
There's no low and Talen could easily been betting the King with the same but higher draw, plus you have someone behind that could also be on the same/higher draw. Once again, fold, wait for another time, for example if you have a low flush, but with the low.
Top and bottom suck and it's definitely one of those sink or swim deals. Still 2pair is usually pretty good in HE. Since, once again you have no reads, it's very possible that Nord is on a continuation bet and just trying to take the pot; course he also could have an overpair and trying to protect with an overbet. Moose is AI.. 77 is a possibility, but there's a lot of money in the pot and with you having 2 pair, it makes 99 and 33 a bit less likely, so your biggest threat is 77, and at least you have a couple outs against that. Since you're playing 70$ tourneys and this is just a $25, I'd go ahead and go AI. If you're wrong and got setted, that's poker.
My 2cents :D
- At 6:16 PM, Mattyebs said...
My instinct says call fold call call
However I'm gonna say aa is a good hand and as well as his wide hand selection he also has you on a wide range...even if he has kj...(the only hand I can really give him thats ahead here) you have redraws and if hit a set...well poker sucks...I go allin and double up
Both PLO hands I only draw to nut flushes because I don't like putting all my chips in drawing dead...especially drawing dead for half...fold in both cases
The fourth hand...The range of hands that beat 9,3 that play for a raise are actually quite small...There are no real draws to protect so sets have no fear to play slow...I think ur up against two single pairs...maybe even 88 and jj...I say push with it...Thats the beauty of hitting hands like 93 for raises its off the chart of possibilities...but the results seem to easy to be correct so I wouldn't be suprised if I was 0-4
- At 6:17 PM, Mattyebs said...
Oh and based on the title of the post I want to say fold fold fold fold...by the by...but ill stick with my first instinct
- At 7:06 PM, Shrike said...
I stack off in Hand #1 and fold everything else with the possible exception of Hand #3. All of these other hands are recipes for disaster and should be folded preflop.
- At 8:22 PM, ToddCommish said...
1. Stack off and hope he has AK or KQ. Even if he has KJ, you have outs. KK might have pushed preflop, JJ is what you're guarding against.
2. Fold preflop. If you don't, fold, postflop. J-high flushes aren't anything to be proud of, especially with a made low on the board.
3. What is it with you and J-high flushes? Fold, you need runner-runner for low, and a prayer for high with that many players.
3.5. Push NOW. Nord was continuation betting with Ace-face, Moose has an overpair.
- At 9:40 PM, said...
#1 - Fold. You're hoping he has K-Q, and he probably won't push with that early on. I think he had K-J. That's a good fish limping hand.
#2 - Omaha? Push, I guess. I dunno.
#3 - See above.
#4 - Poker.com hand. I call. My guess is Moose has 10,10 or something like that. He can't put you on 9,3 there and he's hoping to isolate the other guy with his overpair.
- At 9:46 PM, pokerpeaker said...
Jordan, I'm the "anon" comment. I have no idea why it listed me as that. And I'm surprised at how many call with A-A there now that I answered the question and looked at what others would do. It's a pair, folks, and you aren't the one doing the pushing. You're CALLING an all-in with a single pair, and it's still really early in the tournament. I know there's fish money early in the tourney, but it's still early. Unless your read is pristine, this is an easy fold. "You have outs?" What outs? Runner Runner straight or a two-outer?
- At 10:47 PM, meanhappyguy said...
Echoing Tragedy's comment, I'll assume "correct" is the play you made, because you considered your play to be correct (can that logic be used in the court room?).
I might see you folding this, especially early in the tourney. 1/2 pot bet then a re-re-raise jam looks awfully strong to me. You're calling off the remaining 2k to win 6k. In reality I'd grudgingly call, but for the sake of the $11 bounty, I'll say fold.
Call. The beginning of PLO8 tournaments have more donks than Kat's Friday night donkarama. Both of those bets could be bluffs for all we know, or more likely a good low hand with a few low spades. The KsXs and QsXs possibilities are out there, but folding here just doesn't make sense to me.
No reason to push, because you want Sonny in if at all possible, assuming he doesn't hit a straight flush, full house, or already have the higher flush.
Trick question! In a pot limit tournament, Talen can't bet 2250 into a 750 pot! (I think?)
If your tournament morphs into no limit on the turn, then I'd probably fold to the huge overbet. We may or may not be ahead here, but calling here is a big gamble without a read on this particular player (and not just the overall looseness of the table). Fold.
Hand 3B (continued at Poker.com)
I can't see folding here. A set is a possibility, but I think over pairs are more likely. I bet that you lose this hand to a paired board on the turn or river.
Correct play would be to call, even though you might have lost the hand by the river. I like Bayne's idea of JJ v. JJ v. your hand, but losing to a 7 on the river :P
*breaks out the sunglasses and sun tan oil*
- At 11:00 PM, KajaPoker said...
I didn't read any of the other comments. So here goes:
1. There are only two hands I am scared of here on a flop like this: KJ and 22. I probably fold and wait for a better spot.
2. Fold. You have no way to scoop and you are probably beat with a higher flush.
3. Fold. I hate playing non-nut flushes.
4. This is the trickiest one. I call here and stack them both. One is a TPTK donk and the other is an overpair donk. I doubt one of them hit a set and jammed like this.
- At 12:19 PM, Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...
Call, fold, fold and call.
Man on those two PLO8 hands I don't see how or why you ever seen saw a flop with the shit you were dealt.
I do love these posts, looking forward to reading the results now.