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Lost and Won

Lost
If you are not watching Lost, you are one lucky bastard, because now you can watch Season 1 on DVD all summer long and catch up with Season 2 when it comes out on DVD (presumably, soon). If you do watch, I'm sure you were floored by yesterday's episode. SPOILER ALERT. So, I have my own theory, which was certainly helped by the season finale. Here we go:

The island is and was run by the Dharma Initiative. Desmond's chick's father either funds the Dharma Initiative or is one of many contributors to the Initiative. Since he didn't want Desmond to be with his daughter, he must have created a condition in which Desmond would be brought to the island. Maybe he had someone watch him and take advantage of the situation when Desmond was unconscious. The guy is uber rich, so the possibilities (especially on this show) are endless.

But let's get to the island, shall we? The island is artificially (or naturally) surrounded by currents that only allow escape from one area/angle. We saw that yesteday, when Walt and Dad were told that they could leave the island if they took the boat away from the pier at exactly 325 degrees or whatever boat term was used. So, that explains why people can't leave. We can knock out Desmond's theory, that the rest of the world doesnt' exist anymore, because we saw his girlfriend in the real world at the end.

So, what's up with the girlfriend? As she said in the flashback at the stadium, with enough money and determination, she can find anyone. She knows about the electromagnetic properties of the island, probably through her father. So, she commissioned those French guys (and probably others) to always watch for electromagnetic anomolies, presumably, so she can triangulate the location of the island. As we saw from the end of the episode, mission accomplished, and we can expect her attempt to get to the island to be an important part of season 3.

As for the Others, I'm going to assume that they are Dharma scientists, who are continuing their experiments, albeit in a facility (island) that is showing a lot of wear and tear. There are still a lot of gaps left to be filled, so I'll be eagerly anticipating next week.

So, why the Lost diatribe? Well, because I don't have much else to write today. My poker revelations and strategy posts are fairly nonexistent lately. I've hit a stride, winning $69 last night effortlessly in .25/.50 NL at PokerShare. I plan on sticking around there for a little longer, since I've been fairly successful at their cash games of late. After that, I'll be heading over to one of VPP's new promo sites.

I did have a great time yesterday targeting a particular fish. As soon as I sat down to the shorthanded .25/.50 NL table, Ronnette the fish was raising every hand, usually to $3 or 4. Well, I know an opportunity when I see it. I played dead, folding away most hands, and choosing to call rarely. Finally, with KK, I made my move. I min-raised the preflop bet and got a call from Donkette. The flop was AhKhTh, and Donkette raised about $6 into the $10+ pot. So, I reraise, all-in, knowing that he doesn't have a flush, but fearing that he is drawing to one. He called, with QJo, no hearts. He had the straight, but not the flush. The river was a T, though, and I made my full house. Not the prettiest way to win, especially against a player who I surmised to be an ATM, but I was glad to take it.

He left the table, and I went on another donkey hunt, eventually finding him at another .25/.50 NL table. As soon as I sat down, he played one hand and sat out. I guess he could sense danger afoot.

Here's a very simple thought about seat selection. Any serious player should know how important seat selection is. At my recent 5-Diamond home game, after the tournament, I suggested that we draw for seats in the cash game. Players were shocked, under the impression that seat order doesn't matter as much in cash games as it does in a tournament.

I whole-heartedly disagree. Obviously, you want the dangerous players on your right and the weak players on your left. For anyone new to this concept (and it is a VERY simple concept, so excuse me for you Level 4 thinkers), it is both logical and fundamental. You want the dangerous players on your right so that they almost always act BEFORE you. This way, you can get out of the way with your marginal hands when the strong player is in the hand or raising. You want weak players on your left because you can, presumably, take advantage of them, by raising on their blinds. Also, since they are not a threat, you can act effectively without that additional info of what they will do in any given hand. You probably already know, since they are a weaker player and are more predictable, through tells or through betting patterns.

So, why wouldn't this be as important, if not MORE important in a cash game? In a tournament, it is a zero-sum game. You win or you lose. So, if you are in a crappy seat with a shark acting after you and a rock on your right, then you WILL struggle moreso than otherwise. BUT, you can still play a cautious game and get by, even if you don't have the other skills necessary to succeed against these players. Eventually, tables will combine (in a large tournament) and your seat will change. If it's a small tournament, as players are eliminated, I'd argue that the position becomes less important. Why? Because aggression becomes imporant, and being out of position may allow you to be the aggression leader in most hands. In addition, once there are only, say, 4 players, then you will be acting AFTER the player on your left in 2 out of 4 hands preflop (when you are in the blinds), and 2 out of 4 times post flop (when he is in the blinds). Suddenly, your seat isn't as important.

Now consider a cash game. You are stuck to the right of a very tough competitor. You are forced to forego some hands you might otherwise play if you knew that he was already out of the hand. If you bust, you can rebuy back in, but you usually can't (or don't) change your seat at this point, so you are wagering even more money from this bad position. I don't see any upside or minimizing factors either.

But what do you think? Maybe I'm missing something fundamental, here. I don't know. So, give a holler, let your voice be heard, and have a lovely day.

And don't forget: DADI 6: Pot Limit Hold'Em, May 29th. And I just realized for the first time that it is the evening of Memorial Day. Christ!

posted by Jordan @ 9:17 AM,

6 Comments:

At 12:41 PM, Blogger Raveen said...

yea man good lost theory i was kind of thinking along the same lines....though i was real disappointed with the finale b/c well as they advertised"all you questions will be answered" well we all still have questions and there not answered those abc bastards and false advertising.....as to your postion post your are completely correct you want tight players to your right and loose players to your right so you can isolate lose players and get out of the hand when a tight guy goes in. Good post

 
At 12:55 PM, Blogger HighOnPoker said...

Thanks. I liked the finale. They have to leave some things open, otherwise what will next season be? At least we got some answers.

The funny thing is, I usually come up with theories during the show, under the presumption that everyone is lying. Wifey Kim hates it, because I just tend to confuse her, and more often than not, I'm wrong. Doh!

 
At 2:15 PM, Blogger Tom aka 10,000 Days said...

Only downside to having good players on your right is being check raised more often, but you definitely want the donkish calling stations on your left so you can lead out all the way to the river and punish them when they make stupid mini-raises.

 
At 9:29 AM, Blogger C.L. Russo said...

Here's my impressions of Lost:

I don't think your currents theory is correct. First, Desmond said he sailed due west for a week, and ended up at the Island again. I can see being blown back or taken by tides/currents, but Desmond would notice this as a sailor. He was shocked when he returned to the Island, so it makes me think that he fully thought he was making progress towards Fiji.

Also, we don't know yet if Michael and Walt will make it out to freedom. Walt's strong psychic powers make it seem to me that we haven't seen the last of him.

Let's assume they do get out, though. My theory is that the island is a focal point for many alternate universes, and sits 'outside' of all of them as a result. The four-toed statue supports this, I think.

The Dharma initiative would need a wormhole or other portal in and out of that plane, reality, whatever. They would know that, if you sail at this heading, you'll hit the wormhole and be free. Otherwise, you'll end up back at the Island.

Finally, perhaps the electromagnetic explosions are strong enough to push through into our dimension and take down Ocean Air flights, for example.

Egads, I'm now gay AND a nerd.

 
At 2:50 PM, Blogger HighOnPoker said...

CL, here's my response to your comments:

You are correct about the Desmond situation. As an experienced sailor, he should have realized if the tide had turned him around. This is the largest (and dare I say only significant) problem with my theory. However, perhaps he has been drunk a lot. I dunno.

Walt is likely off the show because between seasons 1 and 2, he went through a growth spurt which can't work with the show's timeline. Hence, all of his scenes this season were changed and minimized and he is only shot at weird angles and waste-up in the finale. I think we've seen the last of them.

As for the different dimensions, I think that the writers are going to try to keep it closer to the real-world. Sure there will be some weird science stuff, but I don't think there is going to be a multi-verse idea (although, I could be wrong).

The four-toed statue is a red herring, in my estimation. It's probably part of an art project from the Dharma Initiative. After all, they were a hippie-type commune, and where is the rest of the statute? It wasn't finished and won't be OR it is finished (as an art project) and was only supposed to be a foot.

So, that covers most of your ideas. I don't mean to sound like I know anything more than anyone else (aside from that Walt tidbit), but I think my theory makes decent sense.

 
At 4:02 PM, Blogger Raveen said...

about walt he will be on the show next season the only character that didnt sign up for next season is michael. Michael however will be on sporadically during next season as a "other" and also walt is key for next season from what i heard of E....no im not gay i watch it for the hot girl....that walt has special powers that will come into play next season. Thats all ive heard so far

 

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