You Decide #69
Monday, July 06, 2009
Hey folks. I have a very simple hand to discuss. It's really a Degree All In Moment type question. Let's get right to it.
We are in a 45-person SNG on Full Tilt with 4925, and blinds of 80/160. There is an 12k stack and a 7k stack at the table, but the rest are between 4k and 960. We are dealt JJ in UTG+1. The UTG player, Surf (4020) limps. We raise to 640 (4x the BB). The next player AnnEye (1930) pushes all-in. It folds back to me. What do I do?
I had a tough decision with this one. A re-push there felt like a super strong hand, like AA or KK. On the other hand, I hate overestimating the quality of play in these $10 tourneys. Since I have 4925, I can afford to lose the hand, but the shift in momentum could be tough to overcome.
So, what do you think? In a situation like this, do you assume you are behind to AA-QQ or otherwise cointossing to AK and therefore fold? Do you think JJ is enough to go to war, knowing that you aren't going to deplete all of your resources on this battle, even if you are incorrect in your decision to call?
Your thoughts would be greatly appreciated.
Until next time, make mine poker!
posted by Jordan @ 8:00 PM,
15 Comments:
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At 3:13 PM,
ASG said...
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Somebody with an M of under 10 pushing doesn't scream AA or KK to me. She could just as easily have 9s or 10s and wants to isolate you. Even if she's got AK, why not flip for another 1300?
BTW, how many people are left? -
At 4:14 PM,
Tom said...
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You're getting close to 2.5 to 1 on your money so this is a very easy call.
Next time ship your pile in the limper's face. It might seem overaggro but at these stakes you'll see a lot of funny hands call you.
Plus how are you playing the hand if it rolls back around to the limper, he flats, and overcards come?
JJ's not a powerhouse. -
At 4:16 PM,
SirFWALGMan said...
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I agree not a hard call at all.. She does NOT have AA-QQ most likely. Your not risking your whole tourney. Just man up.
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At 4:16 PM,
jjok said...
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about 2 and a half to 1 on the call, easy peasy.
Plus is jacks. and they r ok enough to call with. -
At 5:05 PM,
Shrike said...
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Pot odds say call. You have enough equity even if they have overpair.
You priced yourself in with your preflop raise, should have a plan for the hand before you make the bet.
-PL -
At 5:55 PM,
Todd said...
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Agree that it's an insta-call at these stakes. Very likely that you're up against a low-to-mid pair or AKs/AQs, either case gives you the odds to push to isolate.
If you're planning to WIN the tourney, you're gonna need some chips to fight the two big stacks. The schmuck who limped might have delusions of grandeur with his baby pair or Ax, and you could easily double up if he calls as well. -
At 6:11 PM,
edgie212 said...
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While how many folks are left is a bit of a factor, I'd have to say that with this player shoving at around 10BB, I think a lot depends on how they perceive you. If it went to a three-way pot, I'd be inclined to get the hell out of dodge, but also depends on your table image as well. With a short stack I'd be inclined to reraise a LAG player with an ace, but if you've only been PFR around 5%(nit level) I'd probably be wary of shoving against you and pick another spot. Bottom line, getting ITM shouldnt be your goal(it should be winning it all)and if you have him covered, calling here is your best bet for a higher finish.
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At 9:54 PM,
Fuel55 said...
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Snanp call fully expecting 44 to flop quads on your ass.
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At 11:32 PM,
Lucypher said...
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I agree the raiser could easily have a pair lower than J-J or a big/suited Ace.
The pot was 1060 and the raiser only had 1930. Absent a read,
I would have to call given the info provided. -
At 8:14 AM,
BadBlood said...
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I think it's a simple pot odds / equity vs. range calculation. I didn't run numbers, but the situation would seem an easy call.
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At 9:38 AM,
Jordan said...
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Well, based on all the comments, I guess it was a no brainer. Call me loco, but I had to think this one out before calling, since I thought that the re-raise (with more than 10x the BB) was likely to be a top-range hand. The range I figured him for was AA through TT and AK-AQ, and in that range, I didn't feel 100% comfortable. Maybe I can add 99 to that, but I didn't think 88 or a lower pair would over-push there.
In the end, I called because I knew that if the call was wrong, I'd still survive with enough chips to be competitive. As it turned out, he had AQ and my JJ held up.
Thanks for the comments, everyone. -
At 10:01 AM,
Tom said...
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Very good players will have a much more polarized range because they'll think about what an EP re-raise represents and they'll understand they have zero fold equity so they need a real hand to ship with.
But in your standard $10 SnG, not so much. There are tons of spewtards who will spaz with a wide range of hands at various times. Instacall all day long at these stakes. -
At 12:15 PM,
Riggstad said...
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LOL @ Fuel!
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At 3:25 PM,
said...
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My answer to any poker question is it depends. You did not give us enough information. I have no idea what type of player you are going up against in said hand. It could be the rock of all rocks. Then in that situation I fold.
Poker decisions are rarely cut and dry. There is too much going on at a table for me to tell you only based on cards and bets.
Sometimes if you know you are beat then you have to fold. -
At 2:02 PM,
P-Nova said...
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Absent any read, I would fold. (1) You still have plenty of chips after the fold. (2) As said above, Villian's likely range is AA-99 and AK-AJ. 99 and AJ are the least likely hands for him to be pushing with. Villian has less chips than you, but he's not so short stacked that he'd make a desperate reraise against UTG+1 with 88 or worse especially since you've shown massive strength. So really, the only hand you are clearly ahead of is TT. The rest you are behind or 50/50. Poker is a game of patience and unless you are in a turbo, there's plenty of time to wait for a better spot.
