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The Leak: Prop Bets

It's time for another round of The Leak. This time, I will merely offer a concise list of my WSOP prop bets, along with the standings now that five events have been completed. I'll try to offer updates in the future as more events are completed.

Right now, I have six bets spread between four opponents. They fall into two categories: pick-a-player, and over/under Main Event registrations. For the pick-a-player bets, I will list my opponent's players first. For the over/under bets, my opponent chose the number and I picked whether to go over or under. The information listed (over or under) is my bet.

MeanHappyGuy- Brandon Schaefer and Carl Olson vs. Carlos Mortensen and Phil Ivey ($5/final table, $15/bracelet). MeanHappy decided to go with two people he actually knew in person, whereas I went with Mortensen and Ivey for obvious reasons. Mortensen is always a force in tournament poker, and Ivey is extremely talented. My guess is that Mortensen and Ivey will both show up at a final table apiece.

Unimpressed- Phil Hellmuth and Joseph Hachem vs. Mortensen and James Van Alstyne ($1 final table, $5/bracelet). At first, I was going to reject this bet because I sincerely believe that Hellmuth is going to make a good run at an 11th bracelet, and I think Hachem is the real deal. I wouldn't be surprised if both of them win bracelets. On the other hand, I still like my Mortensen pick and I changed things up with Van Alstyne, a lesser known pro who is controlled and talented (at least from the few times I've seen him play-and win-on tv). I like the contrast of my two picks, and I'm hoping that Mortensen's aggression, or alternatively Van Alstyne's controlled play will be what is necessary to go far in these deep fields. But when its all said and done, this is The Leak for a reason, so I would not be surprised if I'm paying out Unimpressed on this one. However...

Under 7592. I think I got this one in the bag. No way to know for sure, but the online qualifiers are less than in years past and I believe that at least a good 10-20% (and I wouldn't be surprised if that number is higher) are going to just take the $10,000 buy-in money and run, now that the online sites can't buy the players in directly. Unimpressed's number suggests a 1,200 person drop from last year, but I expect something closer to a 2,000 to 2,500 drop. But what do I know?

Bayne- Jeff Madsen and Tim West vs. Mortensen and Raymer ($5/final table, $10/bracelet). This one was a bit odd. I had earlier chosen Madsen instead of Van Alstyne for my bet with Unimpressed before changing my pick. I reasoned that Madsen's amazing success last year was going to be hard to repeat. We'll see. Truthfully, I don't know who Tim West is. But I just looked him up and he appears to be a 21-year-old online pro. In fact, I don't even think he has any live cashes. Maybe Bayne knows something I don't, but I wouldn't put money on an online pro who is as yet unproven live. My picks speak for themselves. I added Raymer as my second player because I respect his game, and I sincerely believe that he will, eventually, win a second bracelet. I figured that his buy-ins are covered by PokerStars, so he's also probably playing many events.

Matty Ebs- Ferguson and Negreanu vs. Mortensen and Raymer ($5/final table, $10/bracelet). This was another tricky one. Originally, Ebs wanted Ferguson and Ivey, but since I already had Ivey as my pick vs. MHG, I couldn't accept the wager. I think I'm eating crow now anyway. Ferguson made the final table for the mixed Omaha/Stud Hi/Lo event (Event 5). But there is tons of time to turn it around.

Under 5840- This was much trickier. The smart move was to go for the over and hedge my over/under against Unimpressed. Alas, I'm not that smart. I was actually thinking, at the time, that 2005's field was 2006's. As a result, my calculations were off. But I still could get lucky here. Fucking Leaks!

Thanks for reading. I look forward to playing live poker again soon. I don't think I have anything on the horizon, but that's easy to fix.

Until next time, make mine poker!

posted by Jordan @ 4:08 PM,

7 Comments:

At 7:25 PM, Blogger bayne_s said...

Jordan,

http://www.cardplayer.com/players/results/Tim_West/48495

Tim has 10 live cashes ($464,035 total).

I have also met them both in person as they were at my starting table at Aussie Millions

 
At 8:01 PM, Blogger meanhappyguy said...

Good luck to you, kind sir.

I stand by my horses, but if I had to pick two people who would do the best, I'd go with Steve Paul-Ambrose and Jason Strasser. Those two are machines!

It will be interesting to see whether the online pro or the big-name pro will do better in the final table / win bet. The big-name pro will most likely be playing in the higher-buy-in events, thus have a better shot at getting to the final table (with such a small field); but the online pro will play so many events and probably have more of an edge over their competition in those smaller buy-in events. That is of course void if the big name pro plays tons of events, like Phil Helmuth.

We shall see!

Also, since the betting is over (i think?), what number do you think the WSOP Main Event will be at this year? I haven't paid much attention, but if I had to bet, I'd think it would be over last year's number. Event #3, the $1.5k NLHE, drew a new-record (outside of the ME) turn-out, I don't see why the ME turn-out would be any less than last year?

 
At 8:42 PM, Blogger HighOnPoker said...

Thanks for the correction, Bayne. Those weren't listed in the bio I found. I have no doubt that your choices are well-researched.

MHG, actually, your argument about the pros playing higher events fits right into why the ME will have less people than last year, even though the lower level events might add players.

But really, I know nothing. NOTHING! Hence, the Leak title. I just like gambling on things I have no control over.

 
At 11:07 PM, Blogger bayne_s said...

Although I did not wager on it my take is ME numbers will be down this year.

Online qualifiers getting cash in accounts translates into they can take this cash and play 5-6 preliminary events and win the cash for Main Event or leave before ME if no longer have to cash.

If I had won ME seat this year NFW my wife let's me use the 10k for single tourney but she would let me use part for prelim.

 
At 9:46 AM, Blogger Unimpressed said...

Honestly, I don't know what came over me with that #. Even I know I screwed that up. I think I had 10K in my head from Harrahs saying they'd be ready for it. Then that 10k somehow got screwed up in my head as last years #s and I went for a bit less. While, it's been accepted and not biggy, I'm thinking the #s are going to be just around 6000.

 
At 5:20 PM, Blogger HighOnPoker said...

Phil Ivey made a final table, netting me $5 from MHG. Let's keep em coming!

 
At 12:23 AM, Blogger Unimpressed said...

I LOVE PHIL! He saved me from the Main Event over/under. Now, lets go for two!

ANd come on Hachem, show us your metal!

 

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