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You Decide #50

You are playing in a large homegame tournament, 19 people. You've sat at both tables due to rebalancing midway through the game. When the two tables merge, there are 10 or 9 players left, with 4 spots paying out. You are within the top three stacks with about 14k, and blinds of 200/400. You are in the SB with 24h.

A loose, smart player limps from MP. It folds around to the SB, a good player who has announced that he has to leave in less than an hour, and therefore must bust 6 or so people in a half-hour to make a deal and leave early. He is also the chipleader, covering you by about 3k (i.e., 17k total). He calls. You check.

The flop was T83, all hearts. You have the baby flush, the babiest flush possible. The SB checks. You bet about the size of the pot. The MP player folds. The SB raises back at you to 5k, total. If you re-raise you'll be re-raising about 8.5k. Do you make the re-raise all-in, call, or fold?

I re-raised all-in. The results of this hand, along with my analysis, later.

posted by Jordan @ 9:21 AM,


At 11:01 AM, Blogger Schaubs said...

I re-raise as well. His comment would have talked me into it...

At 11:09 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

He probably has Ah. If he flopped a better one, pay if off.

One could argue that you can merely call and then go all-in if the turn brings a non-heart that doesn't pair the board.

His raise to 5k is pretty big, though. Almost like he wants to just take it down uncontested. Curious to see how it played out.

At 11:14 AM, Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

#1 Jordan at the beginning here you say that you are in the SB. Then in the next paragraph you say it's folded around to the SB, with text that suggests that you are actually in the BB not the SB. You may want to change that because it can be a bit confusing and I know from personal experience how nitpicky many readers can be about little errors like this, even when they don't actually change the details in any material way.

#2 I think the best option is moving allin here. You don't have a lot of your chips in the pot already, but I think it's donkish to assume this guy is on a bigger flush. He could have a set, or quite possibly top pair with the Ace of hearts. The way I see it, it is very unlikely that you're already beat by a higher flush -- in which case you're drawing dead, obviously -- and pretty likely that you are roughly a 65% favorite. I'll take it. If this is the WSOP for a $2500 buyin maybe I think twice about getting it allin on a likely 2-to-1 shot, but at a homegame this is almost a sure allin raise for me.

The fact that this guy has indicated he must leave early and play aggro from here out makes it all the more likely that you're a 2 to 1 favorite. Go for it, I like the move.

At 11:41 AM, Blogger SirFWALGMan said...

Results don't matter you push here and if he has the Ah then you hope he doesn't hit.

At 12:57 PM, Blogger MHG said...

Trying to get back into the swing of things on the blogging front. I'd play it the same way you did and hope I wasn't drawing dead or didn't get drawn out on.

These are usually the hands I kick myself on when I lose, and pat myself on the back when I win.

At 2:06 PM, Blogger Unknown said...

He's raising to protect a hand. If he had a flush he'd just call. That's under normal circumstances. Now the only thing that makes me think differently is he is in fact in a hurry, so he's pushing, hoping you'll call his flush. He won't have the patience, in fact, to get value out of a hand, even just for one hand.
But still, we can analyze this to death. The chances are, what, 2 percent of flopping a flush. If in fact the guy has a larger flush and flops it with you, well, then you're meant to lose the tournament. That's as bad as having a bottom set.
I move all in here and hope he doesn't pair his board. If he has a higher flush then that's life. And you have to believe he's willing to gamble more because he's in a hurry too.


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