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Weekend Speakend

Yo yo yo! We are one day away from my third bloggoversay. But that post is for another day. Today, I'd rather reflect on the weekend.

My poker itch continues, and I can't seem to scratch enough. Even so, I am in one of those dry spells. I think I see the end of the tunnel, but since poker has no memory, the truth is, I can only take each day as it comes. Streaks, after all, are meaningless until after the fact. It's nice to say, "I won 10 tournaments in a row!" but before each of those 10 tournaments, it meant nothing to think, "I have won x tournaments in a row! I'm bound to win this one!" It just doesn't work that way, even though sometimes I wish there were more meaning to the ups and downs of luck.

But no complaints from your truly. This weekend, I had the pleasure of playing a $20+2, 10k guarantee tournament on Bodog with 422 players. If you are a mathamagician, you've already figured out that Bodog had to chip in a 78 player overlay, for $1560 extra into the prize pool. Another fun way to look at it is that for all of the 422 players, FT was tossing in an extra $3.70! Yeah, somehow that doesn't seem like much, but its more than the $2 fee for the tournament, so Bodog lost cash on the game.

I've been playing more and more MTTs lately, generally in the 100-200 player range as a means of keeping poker interesting. I go through phases, and right now, I just want to win something big. Truth be told, I haven't even played much tourneys of that size (100-200) lately, even though it is my current stated preference. I figure I've played maybe 15 tournaments of that size in the last month, if that much. When you consider those numbers compared to some players, the truth is that my online output is minimal. But I still want my lotto ticket, especially since I think I have an edge on the other lotto players. I also love the allure of big money.

Of course, if I won the $2500 first prize for the 10k guaranteed tournament, I would have mentioned it much sooner. As it ended up, I placed in 19th for $70 (without the gurantee, the payout would've been $59 and change). I wanted to last until 18th for $110, but I lost a cointoss (AJ v 99), which set me up as the tiny-stack and ushered in my destruction.

Alas, a little bit of scratch is better than none. If nothing else, the small cash will keep me in more tourneys at Bodog, while FT is broke and Stars is underfunded. I may have some money coming my way at FT soon, which will be nice, but as it now stands, I'm happy with Bodog. The interface may not be the best, and I can't use PokerTracker or AceHUD there, but the players are pretty weak.

As part of Operation Turnaround, I've also began dabbling in Bodog's PLO8 cash tables. All I can say is, the fish are biting.

I leave you with what might be an obvious fold, and might not be. I know that I had to think this one out before laying it down. Here's the setup:

We are probably 1 hour or more into the Bodog $10k Guarantee, and just chipped up to $2100 after my stack dwindled down due to tight play since the tournament's start. In the hand that I won, I held AQh, flopped my Ace and kept betting until my opponent folded. In the very next hand, I am dealt AKo in the BB. I haven't been paying too much attention to the table because I'm multitabling with a 180 SNG on Stars. However, I do know that there has been a lot of action at the table.

In MP, a player pushes all-in for about 860. I fold my AKo UTG (with T2100). So, with minimal facts, is this an easy fold? I guess the real question is, what do you do when you have a nagging suspicion that players are pushing light (blinds were 50/100 at least) and you hold a "drawing" hand like AKo? As we know, I folded because I thought that the pot was not big enough to warrant a call. Even so, I wonder if you all think it is that obvious of a fold. After all, does it make sense to game 800 or so on a coin toss where I believe the chance of me dominating (AJ or AQ) is higher than being dominated (KK or AA)?

Until next time, make mine poker!

posted by Jordan @ 10:48 PM,

11 Comments:

At 3:05 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

pokertracker and HUD do work on Bodog , you just need http://www.idleminer.com/

fidobuster.

 
At 3:09 PM, Blogger Drizztdj said...

I think you're way ahead considering any ace/rag will push in that spot against a short stack.

KK or AA would more likely raise/limp, then pushing trying to get action.

At worse, I think you're a coin-flip.

 
At 4:29 PM, Blogger Alan aka RecessRampage said...

I don't know how you fold AK there. But then again, I don't know what the blinds are, the structure of the tournament, etc. If it's a normal 10 min level, then maybe the blinds aren't high enough but if the blinds were at least 50/100, I would probably call. The fact that MP is pushing means he's got an Ax or maybe even KQ, small PP. I just don't know how you fold AK against that range.

 
At 4:45 PM, Blogger HighOnPoker said...

I'm really glad that Alan and Drizz decided to give some feedback on the hand, because I knew something felt worthwhile about it. Allow me to explain my logic:

I didn't want to risk almost 1/2 of my stack on AKo in that situation. It's a slow tournament structure, and the guy had enough to push with any pair but NOT short enough to put with any Ace. I figured his Ace pushes would be AK, AQ, or AJ at most. I don't see A2-AT pushing in MP in that situation. It's possible, but rare. On the other hand, AA or KK push probably every time there, and arguably most pocket pairs push. I figured I was hoping for the bad end of a weighted cointoss, and praying to be ahead. It just didn't seem worth the chips that I had spent so much time fighting for. I should also mention that the pot was essentially his push, a SB and a BB. If there were more in the pot, I would call, but I was getting about 50/50 odds in that situation, where I hoped to be 50/50, when I had virtually nothing invested in the hand.

Does that change any thoughts? I'm still not 100% sure if calling would've been the better play, even though I am ok with folding there.

 
At 4:53 PM, Blogger lj said...

i'm confused b/c you said he pushed from mp but you folded from utg -- so you didn't already put money in the pot?

i def take chances occasionally in spots where i don't need to (and hence sometimes bust rather recklessly), but that is a spot that as long as there isn't a huge stack behind me, i'm probably calling (or isolating). if anything, the slow structure to me means that even if i go down to 1300, i will still be able to find spots to pick up chips if i have to. if shortie's range is wide enough to include AT+ and pps that's a chance i'm willing to take to pick up a decent stack where i can steal more blinds. the fact that he doesn't have me covered and i'm not flipping for my tournament life also causes me to lean toward calling.

i'm sure others would disagree, and i don't have pokerstove on this pute to double check it, but if you think you have an edge given his range (and you should if blinds are 50/100 and he has 860), then folding just b/c you might be up against AA or AK seems like a mistake to me.

 
At 5:02 PM, Blogger pokerpeaker said...

I call there, and you know what tighty McTight I am.

 
At 5:17 PM, Blogger $mokkee said...

very weak fold IMO. i'm not folding a premo hand like AK to a shorty push. it's probably a coin flip but, you also could be way ahead.

 
At 6:00 PM, Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

I will weigh in the same....in most circumstances this is a lot closer to an easy call than to an easy fold for me. Purely mathematically speaking, the odds of a lower Ace are several times higher than the odds that he has AA or KK specifically. I'm calling with AK against a short-stack push most of the time under most sets of circumstances based on what I've seen in tournaments online.

 
At 4:27 PM, Blogger StB said...

This is Bodog. Call on every table you have open, even if it is on Stars.

 
At 1:44 PM, Blogger lucko said...

I snap call and fist pump with AK there.

 
At 11:13 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why can't he shove there with lesser aces? He only has 8 bets left. He is moving with all kinds of hands you are ahead of here (if he is a competent player). You are way ahead of his range. Insta call. If his hand holds up so be it.

 

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