The Leak: World Cup
Monday, June 12, 2006
It's time once again for Jordan to find a new way to lose his bankroll. You may recall that I had a post called The Leak: Mayorga v. De La Hoya just a month or so ago. I picked Mayorga to win, and sure enough, I was wrong. I don't profess myself to be any sports betting genius. In fact, I'm just the opposite. I know little to nothing about most of the sports/games I gamble on. I try to read up a bit, and I listen for that inner hunch. For these reasons, I rarely do sports betting. Simply put, I know it is -EV. But since I love me some action, I decided to perk up for the World Cup, and have already placed several bets, one of which I won and another that I'm winning as we speak...er, as I type. Let's take a look, shall we:
Pick to Win the Cup (Front Runner): Brazil. Why Brazil, you ask? Two reasons. Number one, they are Brazil, which is easily one of the best teams in the world. Number two, Little Acorn Man. When you don't know something, go seek out someone who does. In this case, I went to a European blogger. Acorn suggested that Brazil was a solid choice to win the whole shebang. The odds are paying out $25 for a $10 wager, so sure enough, I bet $10. After all, I'm not doing it for the money. I'm doing it to just have a little bit of action.
Pick to Win the Cup (Dark Horse): Netherlands. Again, this was influenced heavily by Little
Acorn Man. It didn't hurt that Netherlands is also a great place. What do I know about the Netherlands team? Um, not much. I know they are a decent team, but a relative long shot. I also know that if they win, I get $130 for my $10 wager. Good enough!
Individual Game: Mexico over Iran. Since I'm too impatient to wait for the whole Cup to finish, I put some money on an individual game, Mexico v. Iran. After perusing the lines at WSEX.com, I chose the Mexico game for several reasons. First and foremost, fuck Iran. I'm more than happy to choose my game based on personal biases. I've seen Mexico play before, albeit years ago in a half-drunk state on a small TV in a flea market in Cancun. But I've seen them, and I knew one thing, they could play. They might not be Brazil, but they had a decent team. Iran, on the other hand, has an oppressive regime that hates America and Israel. So, they can't possibly win, because god is Jewish. Okay, I kid ya there, but I just couldn't see them winning. In the end, I placed $16 to win $26 ($10 profit) and won. Viva Mexico!
Individual Game: Italy v. Ghana. After winning the Mexico bet, I rolled my money over to the Italy game. It has become my new goal, finding games where I can place a stright win bet on a favorite by paying odds. In this case, I laid down $30 on Italy, win a chance to win $50 ($20 profit). As of now, Italy is up 2-0, and they are in the last 15 minutes of the match. Looks like I'm going to win.
So, what's next? My plan is to keep betting on favorites, especially when they are huge favorites and the odds are decent. I've perused the schedule, and have decided that I will play one to two games per day. Here is my schedule and picks.
- June 13- Brazil over Croatia (bet $26 to win $10); AND/OR France over Switzerland ($14 to win $10). Clearly, France pays out better, but can Croatia beat Brazil? Very unlikely. So that will probably be my pick.
- June 14- Germany over Poland (odds not available beyond June 13th); AND/OR Spain over the Ukraine. I saw Poland against Ecuador and was unimpressed. Plus, if the screendoors on their submarines or solar-powered flashlights are any indication, Poland is not exactly going to play a very smart game. I don't know much about Spain or the Ukraine, so I'll have to keep my eyes open as the game approaches.
- June 15- England over Trinidad & Tobago; AND/OR Ecuador over Costa Rica. I saw Ecuador play, and I'd support them. But I think England is easy money against T&T. Hell, even with both those countries, I don't think they stand a chance against the British squad. I'll probably stick with England, and I expect odds similar to Brazil over Croatia.
- June 16-Netherlands over Cote d'Ivoir; AND/OR Argentina over Serbia & Montenagro. Argentina is a great team, so that will definitely be a weighted game. But I'm very curious about the Netherlands game, mostly because I have no fucking clue what Cote d'Ivoir is. How could they possibly win if I never even heard of them? Now that, my friends, is indefeatible logic.
Enjoy your footie!
posted by Jordan @ 4:30 PM,
4 Comments:
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At 7:10 PM,
Heavy Critters said...
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I'd bet on Brazil solely based on the fact that when you see their female fan base, they are SMOKING HOT.
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At 9:52 PM,
said...
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I played soccer all 4 years in HS and as a sport, its like golf, I cant stand to watch it but I love to play it.
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At 8:09 AM,
C.L. Russo said...
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Isn't there any manly, American sport you can bet on?
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At 10:42 AM,
Littleacornman said...
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Nice to see your fitba' bets going well so far Jordan.
I'd stay clear of betting in Spain v Ukraine.Hard game to call as Spain are a good side but the Ukraine have the worlds best striker.( Shevchenko).
Cote d'Ivoir are the Ivory Coast and a high quality African side but I think the Dutch with Robben and Van Nistelroy will have too much for them.
Brazil V Croatia should be a fine game tonight.( 3pm est I think).
Roll on...
